The current situation in the ACC Coastal division, fought for the chance to play Florida State in the conference championship game, gives Duke, with their 5-2 conference record, the best shot at winning the division. However, Virginia Tech, Miami and Georgia Tech can still finish first in the division.
On the final game of the season for the Blue Devils, they travel to play North Carolina in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels are also 4-3, but can’t win the division. If Duke win, making it 8 in a row for the Blue Devils, all the discussion is irrelevant, and the other teams can’t make it to the conference title game in any case, while Duke get there for the first time. But if North Carolina win?
If Miami beat Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech beat Virginia, there will be a five-way tie at the top of the division. Who profits? Virginia Tech, with a 3-1 record against the rest of the teams, leaving behind Miami, Duke and Georgia Tech (playing Georgia this weekend) at 2-2 and North Carolina at 1-3.
If Virginia Tech win their game but Miami lose, this will create a four way tie, with the two Tech teams in the lead at 2-1. Again, Virginia Tech gets the nod thanks to the strength of their head-to-head win against the Hurricanes.
If Miami win and Virginia Tech lose? Miami and Georgia Tech lead the four-way tie with a 2-1 record, and Miami, beating Georgia Tech back in October, go on to face Florida State once more after losing to them by 27 points over three weeks ago.
If both Miami and Virginia Tech lose? Duke still lose out in the head-to-head, which means Georgia Tech go to face Florida State for a second consecutive season on the merit of beating both Duke and North Carolina early this season.
Duke must win in order to get into the conference championship game. If not, it looks like Virginia Tech have the inside track to facing Florida State, a game they will most likely lose.