2013 BCS Standings – Week 9

Oregon

While the clear dominance of Alabama in every possible college football ranking system, the big change in the second edition of the BCS Standings in the 2013 season is Oregon leapfrogging Florida State to the number two spot thanks to a win the computers loved over UCLA, while three new teams – Michigan, Notre Dame and Wisconsin make it into the top 25.

Right now, the national title case seems to be Alabama and who else. Right now, without any losses, it looks like Oregon will have the edge over Florida State and Ohio State, who need a loss for both teams ahead of them in order to find themselves in the top 2. Stanford, who are facing Oregon next, moved up one spot to number 5, and are the highest ranked one-loss team at the moment.

BCS Harris Poll USA Today Computer Rankings
RK TEAM AVG PVS RK PTS % RK PTS % AVG A&H RB CM KM JS PW %
1 Alabama .9937 1 1 2590 .9962 1 1542 .9948 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 .990
2 Oregon .9517 3 2 2492 .9585 2 1483 .9568 2 3 2 1 2 4 3 .940
3 Florida State .9211 2 3 2386 .9177 3 1419 .9155 3 2 5 4 3 1 2 .930
4 Ohio State .8840 4 4 2301 .8850 4 1375 .8871 4 4 3 3 8 5 4 .880
5 Stanford .7918 6 6 2035 .7827 7 1182 .7626 5 6 4 5 4 6 6 .830
6 Baylor .7645 8 5 2130 .8192 5 1293 .8342 10 10 11 7 12 9 10 .640
7 Miami (FL) .7560 7 7 1977 .7604 6 1190 .7677 6 5 15 6 7 8 9 .740
8 Clemson .6687 9 8 1767 .6796 8 1064 .6865 10 11 7 11 10 11 8 .640
9 Missouri .6096 5 9 1510 .5808 10 834 .5381 8 9 9 8 5 10 7 .710
10 Oklahoma .6064 15 10 1475 .5673 9 933 .6019 9 7 6 9 11 13 12 .650
11 Auburn .6025 11 11 1453 .5588 11 804 .5187 7 8 18 10 6 7 5 .730
12 Texas A&M .4812 16 13 1364 .5246 14 758 .4890 14 16 19 13 13 18 14 .430
13 LSU .4630 13 12 1408 .5415 13 802 .5174 16 20 10 23 15 20 16 .330
14 South Carolina .4486 21 17 1043 .4012 16 627 .4045 12 12 8 18 9 16 13 .540
15 Texas Tech .3749 10 14 1093 .4204 15 673 .4342 17 18 14 16 22 22 21 .270
16 Fresno State .3669 17 18 965 .3712 18 542 .3497 15 13 25 14 NR 14 11 .380
17 Northern Illinois .3335 18 20 650 .2500 20 373 .2406 13 17 12 12 14 3 15 .510
18 Oklahoma State .3113 19 15 1081 .4158 12 803 .5181 29 NR NR NR NR NR NR .000
19 Louisville .2599 20 16 1056 .4062 17 579 .3735 29 NR 17 NR NR NR NR .000
20 UCLA .2338 12 19 683 .2627 19 432 .2787 21 25 20 NR 19 23 20 .160
21 Michigan .1875 22 21 528 .2031 21 309 .1994 21 14 22 17 24 NR 25 .160
22 Michigan State .1811 NR 23 391 .1504 24 237 .1529 18 23 NR 15 18 17 22 .240
23 UCF .1789 23 22 502 .1931 22 300 .1935 23 NR 16 25 NR 21 17 .150
24 Wisconsin .0993 NR 24 350 .1346 23 253 .1632 29 NR NR NR NR NR NR .000
25 Notre Dame .0928 NR NR 91 .0350 25 83 .0535 19 21 13 21 20 25 23 .190

The other interesting factor to watch are the non-AQ teams of Northern Illinois (moving up a spot to 17th) and Fresno State (moving up a spot to 16th). If an AQ-conference champion is 16th or lower, one of these teams will be guaranteed a BCS spot as long as they’re in the top 16. If one of them ends up being in the top 12, and remaining undefeated until the end of the season just might do the trick, they’ll be guaranteed a spot anyway. This will hurt the chances of teams like Clemson and Notre Dame finding themselves in a BCS game thanks to an at-large spot.

Florida State do have Miami (7th) and Florida left to play, but if both they and the Ducks remain undefeated until the end of the season, it’s hard seeing the Seminoles making it above the third spot. Their schedule is slightly easier in the eyes of the computers, and the pollsters have shown more than once they simply prefer Oregon in the championship game playing Alabama than anyone else, despite some thinking the Seminoles might be a better match.

The chances of Alabama and Oregon not making it? The last time that the no.1 and no.2 teams in the second edition of the BCS standings didn’t make the national champions game was in 2008. Four times, however, teams ranked no.1 and no.2 at this stage have gone on to face each other in the BCS championship game: USC vs Oklahoma in 2004, USC vs Texas in 2005 and LSU vs Alabama in 2011.

As for Alabama’s dominance? They’ve now been ranked No. 4 or higher for 18 consecutive weeks. For Baylor, Fresno State and Central Florida, these are the highest rankings ever.

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