Andrew Luck will be the number one pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, heading over to the Indianapolis Colts, to start the post-Peyton Manning era. Something really awful needed to happen during his pro day workouts at Stanford to change that fact. After going 47-50 and seemingly ending his day, Luck agreed to throw one more  pass – a 70 yard bomb, thrown into the wind.

It wasn’t a completion, not that it mattered. The receiver dropped the ball while the impressed scouts and crowds were wow’ing or woo’ing at the sight of Luck’s arm strength. Robert Griffin III might be just as strong, maybe even stronger, but these things are set in stone. Someone said Luck was going first in this draft, and only an injury or Luck becoming a Beverly Hills party animal can change that fact.

Luck was scheduled to throw 48 passes on the day, throwing 50, completion 47. Two of those incompletions were drops.   The scouts wanted to see him dish out one more for over 40 yards, so he went all out and threw for 70 yards. Into the wind. And everyone was sold.

Do Pro-Days really matter? I guess in some small way. If a player suddenly shows up overweight or carrying some injury, that matters. But a quarterback actually needs to throw 50 passes for the scouts to make up their minds? Games are what matters, and in truth, even guys who looks like a sure thing are a bit of a gamble if not more until their NFL career begins.

Luck is one of those, supposedly, sure things. There have been plenty of busts at the quarterback position that had the sure thing labeled to their back when they entered the league.