The College Football Playoff committee stunned everyone by making it clear that two SEC teams might not happen at all, leaving Alabama out of the top 4, instead joining Oregon (number two in the nation right now) and TCH to Florida State and Mississippi State, maybe suggesting that winning your conference and strength of schedule mean more than anything else to them when they come up with their selections.

It seems that feat of SEC bias is disappearing. There are nine teams in the top 25 with one loss or less, but when trying to think ahead of what might happen in coming games in all conferences, it’s hard to see a scenario in which two SEC teams make it to the semifinals, unless would-be conference champions like Oregon, TCU, Baylor, Arizona State and Ohio State start losing games, which will once again mix everything up.

Week 11 playoff rankings

There are two more one-loss teams that don’t have much of a chance. Duke might end up winning the ACC, and the same goes for Nebraska, but even if they win out their remaining schedule, which is unlikely especially for the Cornhuskers considering who they have left to play, they probably won’t get into the final four. All of this is assuming that the teams at the top don’t drop anymore games. In the SEC, where Mississippi State have to play in Alabama and Ole Miss, while the Crimson Tide still have a game against Auburn, it’s all still up in the air.

The Big 12 is an intriguing situation. Kansas State seem to have been dropped out of the race after losing at TCU, but they still have a game against Baylor. The Bears have the more difficult remaining schedule for now, but a head-to-head advantage over the Horned Frogs. However, right now, TCU have the better loss, losing to Baylor while the Bears lost to the sliding West Virginia. If they both end up with one loss, it’ll be interesting to see if the committee suddenly flips the two teams. TCU also have the better out-of-conference win, beating the 7-2 Minnesota.

And the Big Ten? Right now Ohio State are on the outside looking in. Even if they win out, which means winning the Big Ten against Nebraska, Wisconsin or Minnesota (Iowa still have a shot actually), it’s unlikely they make their way into the top 4 unless some losses above them occur. In all likelihood, a one-loss Mississippi State, Alabama, Pac-12 (Arizona State in the picture) and Big 12 champion get in before they do. That loss to the terrible Virginia Tech isn’t doing them any favors.