According to the hypothetical BCS rankings following Week 14 in College Football, the playoff will be made up of number one Alabama, followed by Florida State, Oregon and TCU. No two-SEC teams, that’s not going to happen, and maybe even more interesting to see is Ohio State falling behind the top 4. Playing in a championship game and winning the Big Ten might change that.
That’s the one thing that TCU and/or Baylor have going against them. They don’t play for a championship on the final day of the season. Baylor get to play Kansas State, which is great for their strength of schedule, but opinions of people making decisions aren’t immediately turned by numbers. An actual title is the thing that makes all the difference in the world, and a one-loss Ohio State team with a Big Ten championship after beating Wisconsin speaks volumes, while TCU or Baylor winning or splitting the Big 12 title isn’t as loud or meaningful.
These hypothetical rankings were made by taking the AP Poll as part of the human factor instead of the Harris poll which doesn’t exist anymore. Combine that with the Coaches poll to the results provided by six different computers (Anderson & Hester College Football Computer Rankings, Billingsly Report, Colley Matrix, Massey Ratings, Jeff Sagarin’s College Football Rankings, Peter Wolfe’s Rankings) and you get more or less the BCS.
TCU get a lot of computer love – ranked in the top five by all of them, including in the top by three of them. Ohio State have two rating systems ranking them outside the top 5, including a number 8 and one outside the top 10. Baylor suffer from an even bigger problem, getting only one rating system to place them in the top 5. Mississippi State, dropping to number eight and never to return back up again, are still in the top 4 according to one ranking system.
The question about the committee is whether or not things can change. If Missouri beat Alabama, maybe then the SEC gets two teams? In the BCS, Missouri are only number 14, but beating Alabama can change a lot of things, also in the eyes of the committee voters. Florida State losing should make them fall out of the top 4, but will it mean Georgia Tech get in? Does a Wisconsin team with two narrow losses get into the top 4 if they beat Ohio State?
Out of all the outsiders looking in that are also underdogs in their conference championship games, Arizona seem to be in the best position. They’re number seven in the BCS with already one win against Oregon this season. Another win against the Ducks on a bigger stage with a lot more at stake might put them among the top 4, at least in the BCS. The committee members are less about numbers and handle their business in a different way.
Hat Tip: seadondo