If the BCS was still something that mattered, the same four teams the playoff committee is currently going with would be going to the national semifinals, with Alabama at number one, followed by Florida State, Oregon and Mississippi State.
The only difference? While the committee has the Seminoles ranked at number three and are waiting for any excuse to dump the undefeated national champions from the top because of their unimpressive road and ability towards the finish line, the combined scoring of the human polls and the computer rankings put the Seminoles above Oregon by quite a large margin, and barely below Alabama. Why? They have four number one computer rankings compared to just two by the Tide.
These hypothetical rankings were made by taking the AP Poll as part of the human factor instead of the Harris poll which doesn’t exist anymore. Combine that with the Coaches poll to the results provided by six different computers (Anderson & Hester College Football Computer Rankings, Billingsly Report, Colley Matrix, Massey Ratings, Jeff Sagarin’s College Football Rankings, Peter Wolfe’s Rankings) and you get more or less the BCS.
Oregon, according to the computers, are a top four team in any case. Florida State have two ratings that put them at number six and number sixteen. When going just by Strength of Schedule, Florida State are really in a bad spot. However, as long as they remain undefeated, a streak that’s going back to 2012, they don’t have to worry about a thing, especially not a hypothetical ranking, which should be the one deciding the identity of the four playoff teams.
TCU and Baylor are both ahead of Ohio State in the BCS standings, while Georgia are ahead of UCLA. There’s nothing you can do about it: Computers love the SEC, which can be clearly shown with a four-loss LSU team still hanging around the top 25, despite having a clearly disastrous season compared to the expectations. Colorado State are ranked in this one behind Marshall, but that’s really not an important thing except for some bragging rights.
Another thing that’s interesting to see is the computers not loving TCU – none of them give the Horned Frogs a top 4 ranking. Baylor get one (although they’re #14 according to another rating). Georgia and UCLA both get a top 3 rating through one system. Georgia, as an SEC champion with two losses, can make the national championship semifinal. Missouri? Probably not, but they are the more likely team to represent the SEC East.