College Football – Chances of Undefeated Teams Losing

Each week is just a wait for one of the undefeated teams to lose and clear up some space and confusion at the top of the BCS standings, although it seems highly unlikely Alabama (vs Mississippi State), Florida (vs Georgia), Kansas State (vs Texas Tech) and Oregon (vs Colorado) will lose in week 9. Notre Dame? They have the trickiest game of all, playing in Oklahoma.

Alabama (#1, 7-0) hosting Mississippi State (#11, 7-0): The second biggest game the SEC West has to offer this season, but it’s just hard to think of the Bulldogs as an elite team, despite their record, which includes going 3-0 in the conference with wins over Auburn, Kentucky and Tennessee, 3 of the 4 weakest teams in it. Alabama’s opponents have been exactly top dogs up until now, but I think there’s no more than a 10% chance they mess up in this one.

Florida (#2, 7-0) in Jacksonville vs Georgia (#10, 6-1): Florida destroyed South Carolina, while South Carolina destroyed Georgia. The math is simple, but rivalry games do have a knack to take a life of their own which disregards early assumptions. Still, the Gators defense should be too much, and yet I give them a 25% chance of losing.

Kansas State (#3, 7-0) hosting Texas Tech (#14, 6-1): Tech have quite a high powered offense with Seth Doege, but their one time against a good defense (Oklahoma in Lubbock) didn’t go too well for the Red Raiders. KSU have a better defense and a running game that no one seems to know how to stop. There’s a 20% chance the Wildcats don’t win this one.

Oregon (#4, 7-0) hosting Colorado (1-6): The most explosive offense in College Football playing a team that might be the worst among AQ conferences. Oregon usually blow out opponents before putting on third stringers to close out the game, and it shouldn’t be any different this time. There’s a 5% the Buffaloes actually stun the world.

Notre Dame (#5, 7-0) at Oklahoma (#8, 5-1): Our first real chance of a loss for one of the title contenders. Notre Dame simply don’t have an offense, scoring more than 20 points only twice this season. Is their defense that good? The Sooners offense should be the toughest test yet, and they’re probably slight underdogs heading into Norman. Still, KSU gave the blueprint, Notre Dame can follow. It’s a 50-50 case for me.

Oregon State Beavers (#7, 6-0) at Washington (3-4): Washington already met a similar team to the Beavers this season, beating Stanford in Seattle. Oregon State have a better player at quarterback, starter or backup, than what Stanford had on that Thursday night. I’m giving a 30% chance of OSU losing.

Rutgers (#15, 7-0) hosting Kent State (6-1): Unlike Notre Dame, Rutgers do put points on the scoreboard, but their rivals haven’t been exactly top notch. The same tradition of this season should continue against the Golden Flashes who lost their only game against an AQ team to Kentucky. There’s a 15% Rutgers lose this one.

Ohio (#24, 7-0) at Miami (OH) who are 3-4: A MAC inner state rivalry is always a tricky game, but the Bobcats have won the last six games in The battle of the bricks and simply have too much offense for the Redhawks to handle. There’s a 20% chance Ohio loses.

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