Trying to Predict Pacquiao vs Marquez

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Manny Pacquiao shouldn’t be in a place he has to prove anything to anyone. With a 14 fight win streak in the highest level possible, winning title belts in eight different weight classes, Pacquiao is without a shadow of a doubt the top pound for pound fighter in the world.

Juan Manuel Marquez didn’t win those two fights, despite what he says. Pacquiao, not getting that Mayweather fight he wants, needs to make a trilogy of his Juan Manuel Marquez rivalry, and to prove once and for all that he can beat him, decisively, and prevent anymore Marquez shirts being printed.

Easy Prediction – Manny Pacquiao will win this, by a wide, wide margin. His bigger experience at Welterweight, his size, being the overall better fighter, and this burn in him, despite not showing it on the outside much, to finally beat Marquez convincingly, so no one can have any doubt about Pacquiao being the better fighter in the first two fights.

There shouldn’t be actually. Marquez did win the last two rounds in both fights on the scorecards, but in both of them, he was mostly dominated. In the first wan Pacquiao came out of nowhere, stunning him. In the second fight, Pacquiao was simply better for most of them. Marquez just got the better of him during the later rounds.

Marquez has speed, but looked uncomfortable during his only visit to Welterweight, getting beaten, not knocked out, by Floyd Mayweather in 2009. He returned to dominate in Lightweight afterwards, winning his next 3 fights, but my guess, and not just me, is that the transition into a the higher weight class, where Manny has proven he’s #1, even when going against bigger fighters, will be too much for Marquez.

Pacquiao hasn’t won by knockout in his last three fights, but there was no question who was the better fighter. Since sending Oscar De La Hoya into retirement, he’s been bruising guys up, viciously, whether winning by knockout or not. When Mosley was knocked down, he spent the rest of the fight just hoping to survive and get his paycheck without too many bruises.

So Marquez doesn’t stand a chance? Not exactly. Marquez is 38, but he seems to be in great shape. Maybe it’s the fact that’s he’s packed on some pounds, but there’s a sense from his camp that he’s preparing something special for the WBO Welterweight champion. I’m not too sure about that, but Marquez has a couple of things going for him. There’s no quit in him, the man just keeps on going, getting knocked down, beaten up, no matter up. He sets fighters up for the second halves of fights.

One of the best counter-punchers out there, his ability to absorb and retaliate is pretty much his only shot. If he can take everything Pacquiao has to dish at him for six-eight rounds, make it look close and then turn things around for a late push, then we might, just might, see Marquez pull one hell of an upset. What then? There’s a clause for an immediate re-match, promising Marquez more money, if he wins this one.

That’ll make, in theory, it a 1-1-1 trilogy. You gotta have a deciding four fight. A Marquez fight will probably end any chance of a Mayweather vs Pacquiao fight, but maybe that’ll be good for boxing, not putting all of its hopes on this mega fight to revive the sport. Whatever the consequences might be, I just don’t see Marquez pulling it off. Manny Pacquiao for the win, within stoppage. Clear decision, via knockout this time.